Arlington Million Preview
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Saturday's 2008 Grade 1 Arlington Million (ESPN 3et) ought to be a doozie. Unlike in years past, this year's edition doesn't feature any obvious favorites, or all-out monsters that are sure to either win or finish in the exacta. What the field lacks in megawatt superstars, it makes up for in top-to-bottom quality and the subsequent betting opportunities that go along with that.
The morning line favorite is the well-traveled Archipenko. He has born in Kentucky and has already raced in Ireland, England, Japan, and Dubai and now will add the States to his resume. While he has won only one Grade 1 event, he's the only horse in the field that has won his last two races, a grade 2 and grade 1 where he was 14-1 and 11-1, respectively. He's an obvious contender in tomorrow's race but with the number four horse, Sudan, scratching he may not be quite as attractive as a win candidate. When Archipenko is at his best, he's sitting a few lengths off of a hot pace and makes his move at the end of race, passing the tired horses that sprinted out ahead of him. Sudan was expected to be the early speed in the race, serving as a target for every horse to run at, without him the early going should be a bit slower which means horses will have more energy at the end of the race. He drew the #1 post and that is a possible concern as well. Since he won't be darting out to the lead, it's possible he'll get pinned in on the rail and have a difficult time finding running room when he makes his move late. Archi is certainly the horse that has ran the best lately, but at such a short price there are a few things to dislike as well.
With Sudan out of the race, the logic speed horse will be the French horse Spirit One. He may be a Frenchy that has never won a Grade 1 race, but he always seems to find his way into the trifecta and never loses his lead easily. It's also apparent that this is the distance he prefers. At 10-1 in the morning line in such a wide open race, I think he's worth taking a shot with since we know he will at least be in the lead at some point, which is more than we can say about any other horse in this field. I doubt he will go off at 10-1, my guess is that he'll be closer to 5 or 6-1, considering that he went off at 5-1 against the best European horse, Duke of Marmalade, in April. If he does go off closer to 8 or 10-1, he'll certainly be intriguing at that price.
The second favorite in the morning line is the 7, Great Britain's Mount Nelson. This is another curious morning line at 5-2. His last two races have been very fast, but other than that his resume wouldn't suggest he belongs in the race. He has run in two Grade 1 races at this distance- one of which he won (which was his last race), the other he finished 11th in a 12 horse field, 40 lengths behind the leader.
The third favorite in the morning line is the more consistent, American representative Einstein. "Einie" has raced in all the best turf races in America this year and finished solidly in all of them and he is currently listed on the Watchmaker Watch as the fourth best American turf horse. His typical running style ought to put him a bit closer to the lead early on than where Archipenko ought to be, and with tepid early fractions likely, I think that will be advantageous for Einstein. My guess is that he'll go off as the second favorite in the race around 5-2, or 3-1 and I think he's a very logical horse to use.
The last horse I'll mention is Stream Cat who finished 4th in this race last year, beaten by only a length. Up until his last race, that 4th place finish has pretty much been the feather in his cap for his entire career. In his last race, which was also over the turf at Arlington, he won impressively over Cosmonaut in his only other race this year. It's difficult to say whether that was the beginning of a trend, or an anomaly; but either way I can't endorse this horse with much fervor.
My picks are:
6. Einstein
1. Spirit One
3. Archipenko
Saturday's 2008 Grade 1 Arlington Million (ESPN 3et) ought to be a doozie. Unlike in years past, this year's edition doesn't feature any obvious favorites, or all-out monsters that are sure to either win or finish in the exacta. What the field lacks in megawatt superstars, it makes up for in top-to-bottom quality and the subsequent betting opportunities that go along with that.
The morning line favorite is the well-traveled Archipenko. He has born in Kentucky and has already raced in Ireland, England, Japan, and Dubai and now will add the States to his resume. While he has won only one Grade 1 event, he's the only horse in the field that has won his last two races, a grade 2 and grade 1 where he was 14-1 and 11-1, respectively. He's an obvious contender in tomorrow's race but with the number four horse, Sudan, scratching he may not be quite as attractive as a win candidate. When Archipenko is at his best, he's sitting a few lengths off of a hot pace and makes his move at the end of race, passing the tired horses that sprinted out ahead of him. Sudan was expected to be the early speed in the race, serving as a target for every horse to run at, without him the early going should be a bit slower which means horses will have more energy at the end of the race. He drew the #1 post and that is a possible concern as well. Since he won't be darting out to the lead, it's possible he'll get pinned in on the rail and have a difficult time finding running room when he makes his move late. Archi is certainly the horse that has ran the best lately, but at such a short price there are a few things to dislike as well.
With Sudan out of the race, the logic speed horse will be the French horse Spirit One. He may be a Frenchy that has never won a Grade 1 race, but he always seems to find his way into the trifecta and never loses his lead easily. It's also apparent that this is the distance he prefers. At 10-1 in the morning line in such a wide open race, I think he's worth taking a shot with since we know he will at least be in the lead at some point, which is more than we can say about any other horse in this field. I doubt he will go off at 10-1, my guess is that he'll be closer to 5 or 6-1, considering that he went off at 5-1 against the best European horse, Duke of Marmalade, in April. If he does go off closer to 8 or 10-1, he'll certainly be intriguing at that price.
The second favorite in the morning line is the 7, Great Britain's Mount Nelson. This is another curious morning line at 5-2. His last two races have been very fast, but other than that his resume wouldn't suggest he belongs in the race. He has run in two Grade 1 races at this distance- one of which he won (which was his last race), the other he finished 11th in a 12 horse field, 40 lengths behind the leader.
The third favorite in the morning line is the more consistent, American representative Einstein. "Einie" has raced in all the best turf races in America this year and finished solidly in all of them and he is currently listed on the Watchmaker Watch as the fourth best American turf horse. His typical running style ought to put him a bit closer to the lead early on than where Archipenko ought to be, and with tepid early fractions likely, I think that will be advantageous for Einstein. My guess is that he'll go off as the second favorite in the race around 5-2, or 3-1 and I think he's a very logical horse to use.
The last horse I'll mention is Stream Cat who finished 4th in this race last year, beaten by only a length. Up until his last race, that 4th place finish has pretty much been the feather in his cap for his entire career. In his last race, which was also over the turf at Arlington, he won impressively over Cosmonaut in his only other race this year. It's difficult to say whether that was the beginning of a trend, or an anomaly; but either way I can't endorse this horse with much fervor.
My picks are:
6. Einstein
1. Spirit One
3. Archipenko
Since Einstein is my pic, and America's best chance at winning the race, I included this video as a bonus. Just watch it, it's hilarious. Your satisfaction is guaranteed or my pseudonym isn't T.R. Slyder.
Labels: Horse Racing, Slyder
posted by T.R. Slyder at
5:00 PM
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