SURPRISE! SURPRISE! - WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW

by Adam Briner, Fantasy Guru, adamcbriner@yahoo.com

Every once in a while the world of fantasy football will surprise the hell out of you. Last week, it did me. I’m proud of my official guru status and, in fact, generally introduce myself to complete strangers as such. I actually made them put it on my driver’s license. I tell everyone that I am never surprised in the realm o’ fantasy football.

That said I never get fantasy snuck up on. Needless to say, I was surprised to find out that I was surprised.

Let me explain. I’m in two leagues. One is a friendly league among my college buddies. The other is with the writers for Rivalfish.com. Because this group of swashbuckling gambling addicts can't do anything without risking at least a month’s rent. Plus, because we Rivalfish folk don’t want this to be fun, we make it winner takes all. Fifty bucks a piece and first place gets it all. Sounds like a formula for fist fights and more GA meetings – aka, fun.

By the way, we tend to live in places where 50 bucks covers rent for a month.

I’ve been in spot one or two in that league throughout most of the year – barely. I’ve relied on Donovan McNabb to keep me on top. Well, guess what! One tackle, a busted knee, and an addition to the injured reserve list later and my life is ruined.

50 bucks, just so you know, is enough to ruin my life.

Then the surprise happened. The moment that I clicked the option to start Tony Romo, my heart sank. “While I’m at it, and since it’s all over anyways, I might as well take a chance on Joseph Addai,” thought I. The key was that I was out of it, so what did it matter.

Little did I know, it wasn’t all over. At least for one week, it was the best thing that could have happened. Romo threw four five tds and Addai ran for four more. Surprise! The rest of my team played average games, but who cares? All this happened in the week I played the first place guy. Now I’m the first place team, and I can blame Tony and Joey for that.

So what does my accidental success mean in terms of fantasy football strategy? Should every team be fighting for Tony Romo as a starter? Absolutely not. I wouldn’t encourage you to acknowledge Romo’s existence, let alone put on your all important fantasy roster. The point is that sometimes what you least expect to be successful is.

You’ve endured an entire season of the Edge? Bench him. You never know what you might get out of Brandon Jacobs (he had a TD last week). Deshaun Foster’s suckiness been ruining your everyday life? Marion Barber has been on fire for the last 3 weeks and is available in over a third of the leagues. Put him in.

We tend to fall in love with the team we drafted. Actually, we fall in love with their performances from years past. Randy Moss, Jamal Lewis, there are still teams in some leagues that have Priest Holmes. These guys were great a few years ago – first round draft picks, in fact – but they flat-out suck now. Don’t play them.

It’s time to take a gamble on those borderline plays. No one has a team full of sure things. Otherwise, they would be in first and not need this. I’m not suggesting you bench your all-stars. I am suggesting you stop sleeping on your sleepers.

So take a gamble. Some of you are going to have to gamble just to get over the injury lump. I had to. But some of you just want to gamble. It’s just what you like to do.

If that’s the case, you should get a job writing for Rivalfish.